Student List targets 40 percent in Serbia's tightest race in 14 years

Serbia holds a parliamentary election on Sunday that political scientists describe as the most competitive since 2012. The Serbian Progressive Party, or SNS, has held power for 14 years, but a student-led opposition list now contests the outcome with substantial support. The race pits the incumbent government’s promise of stability against a student movement’s demand for accountability following a deadly infrastructure failure.

The opposition effort centers on the Student List, a group formed from protests that began after a concrete canopy collapsed at the Novi Sad railway station in November 2024. That disaster killed 16 people and became a symbol of institutional failure. The movement has spent nearly two years protesting and now fields candidates to challenge the government’s grip on power. They aim to bridge ideological and foreign policy divisions that have traditionally segmented Serbian voters.

In Belgrade, thousands gathered on Thursday for the Student List’s final rally. Many attendees walked for days from various parts of the country to the capital, a logistical feat intended to demonstrate widespread solidarity. Arsa Stojanovic, a biology student, told the crowd that the walkers had traversed the nation and found reliable support in local villages and neighborhoods. Aleksandar Cupic, a transport engineering professor and candidate, described the atmosphere as smelling like freedom. The event concluded with a traditional circle dance, or kolo.

Polls indicate the Student List could secure more than 40 percent of the vote, a figure that would dislodge the SNS from its dominant position. Dusan Spasojevic, a political scientist, noted that this is the first election since Aleksandar Vucic took power in 2012 with an uncertain result. He observed that the movement has generated hope and substantial backing, making the outcome genuinely competitive.

The SNS held a rival closing rally a few kilometers away. The party’s message emphasized continuity, prosperity, and sovereignty. Former President Vucic warned that opponents were acting on foreign orders and had attacked the party with billions of euros. The SNS framed the vote as a battle for the country’s future, accusing rivals of serving external interests rather than domestic stability.

The campaign has been marked by tensions and irregularities. The independent monitoring group CRTA recorded 116 incidents of physical violence or verbal threats by the final week. These incidents included attacks on campaigners and attempts to seize banners. CRTA also documented surveillance and police questioning of opposition activists, particularly those linked to the Student List. The group stated that the campaign was neither free nor fair, citing a narrowing of freedoms and deepening inequality.

Media analysis by CRTA showed that nearly 75 percent of national television airtime went to government representatives. More than 80 percent of coverage regarding the Student List was negative. The Balkan Investigative Reporting Network published testimony from a former SNS member describing pressure on public sector employees to deliver votes. Anonymous sources reported that voters were offered between 30 and 150 euros, or family holiday packages, to support the SNS. Independent media have also reported on alleged links between party affiliates and criminal networks.

Authorities have warned of potential unrest after the vote, alleging that students, aided by foreign intelligence, are preparing for street violence. Several individuals have been arrested on suspicion of plotting disturbances for election night. Spasojevic noted that a decisive victory for either side would be the best outcome, but polls suggest a narrow margin. He added that a close SNS win would likely be contested, and the student movement has vowed to defend every vote.

The European Union is watching the process closely. An EU Commission spokesperson stated that key recommendations to improve Serbia’s electoral framework remain unimplemented. The EU stressed that democracy and the rule of law are central to Serbia’s accession process, for which it has been a candidate since 2012. The international response is seen as a factor in preventing escalation and ensuring the authorities accept the results.