Votel: Iran strikes lack defined end state

Retired Army Gen. Joseph Votel stated that a new wave of U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran will likely weaken the nation but will not end the war. Votel, who led U.S. Central Command from 2016 to 2019 and now chairs the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, spoke with NPR regarding the strategic objectives of a potential post-election bombing campaign. He noted that many likely targets have been hit in previous rounds and that Iran has demonstrated the ability to rebuild its infrastructure.

Votel argued that strikes serve to buy time, punish Tehran, and degrade specific capabilities, but they have not yet altered the Iranian government's strategic calculus. He observed that the Iranian leadership has adopted a harder line and is more willing to execute bold counterattacks. To change this dynamic, Votel said Washington must first define a clear end state and establish how it will declare the conflict finished. In his assessment, that end state centers on the nuclear enrichment issue and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Once that objective is set, Votel contended that military, economic, diplomatic, and information pressure must all align toward that single goal. He emphasized that military force is only one component of national power. He identified the financial front as the area showing the most visible progress. He cited reporting that Iran's ghost fleet has run out of oil, a result of the blockade and various sanctions. While he noted this economic squeeze takes time, he said there is definite movement in that direction.

Votel explained that U.S. aims are difficult to read but largely focus on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. He said free movement of oil and commerce through the strait would help lower gas and diesel prices domestically. The second primary concern is Iran's nuclear program. He also mentioned that Iran uses proxies, including the Houthis across the Arabian Peninsula, to create regional instability, but he described Hormuz and enrichment as the principal worries.

Regarding military readiness, Votel said American offensive power in the region is substantial. He stated that the ability to strike is not in question. However, he identified missile defense as the potential constraint. He noted that earlier reporting describes heavy pressure on the defensive interceptors protecting U.S. forces, regional partners, and critical infrastructure. In his view, offensive capability is adequate, while defensive resources may face constraints during a prolonged campaign.

Votel concluded that bringing Iran to the negotiating table requires a clear statement of objectives, a coordinated use of military and economic tools, and the patience to see the approach through. He said the current strategy lacks that defined finish line, leaving the conflict in a state where time is bought but not won.