Lula Rally on Copacabana Beach Aims to Boost Runoff Chances

Tens of thousands of supporters filled Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro on Saturday to rally behind President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The crowd, dressed predominantly in red, moved along the 2.5-mile shoreline in a procession that organizers described as carnival-like. They gathered on the final day before the presidential runoff against far-right rival Flávio Bolsonaro. Activists unfurled a large yellow and green banner with the message: "WE ARE GOING TO TURN THIS AROUND!"

Approximately 159 million Brazilians are eligible to vote on Sunday. The two candidates are currently tied in the polls following the first round held on October 4. Bolsonaro secured 47% of the vote in that initial round, while Lula received 45%. Historically, no candidate who lost the first round has won the subsequent runoff since democracy returned to Brazil in the 1980s. A victory for Lula would therefore mark a historic shift in the country's electoral history.

Most analysts view Bolsonaro as the slight favorite. He positions himself as a leader who will confront violent crime with strict measures. His father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, served from 2019 to 2022. In recent days, however, Lula has regained momentum in the polls. This shift coincides with several scandals involving his opponent. Last week, the magazine Piauí reported that Flávio Bolsonaro attended a boat party with sex workers and vaccine lobbyists during the 2020 coronavirus outbreak.

For many voters, the stakes extend beyond standard political differences. Jair Bolsonaro is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup after his defeat in 2022. Some democrats fear he could be freed or return to government if his son wins the presidency. Press reports suggest that several of his fellow plotters, who are now jailed or in exile, could receive senior military and police posts. Restaurateur Marta Moraes, 59, stated that her opposition is specifically to "Bolsonarismo" and noted she lost four relatives due to the government's handling of the pandemic.

A large portion of the crowd belongs to a WhatsApp group known as "Lula's Army," which has 10 million members. The group formed after the first round of voting. Retired teacher Isabella Gaze, 64, described the event as not being a normal election. DJ and activist Cammy Marinho, 49, said she spent two weeks persuading Bolsonaro voters and abstainers to change their minds. Fourteen-year-old Heitor Lopes da Silva traveled from Duque de Caxias in a wheelchair to show his support.

Bolsonaro supporters also demonstrated in other parts of the country. In Belo Horizonte, the capital of Minas Gerais, thousands gathered in Praça da Liberdade wearing yellow jerseys and waving Brazilian flags. Many also carried US flags. Minas Gerais holds the country's second-largest electorate and is a key bellwether state. No candidate has won the presidency without carrying this state. Bolsonaro led in the first round there by just under 5%.

Supporters in Belo Horizonte defended Bolsonaro's security platform. Shooting club owner Antonio Carlos Costa Jr, 59, argued that Jair Bolsonaro gave citizens the right to defend themselves and that his son would continue that policy. Security experts note that the former president's loosening of gun laws diverted many firearms to criminal gangs. Lula has since tightened these rules. Lula's backers doubt Bolsonaro, who has documented ties to Rio de Janeiro paramilitary militias, can effectively curb crime.