Flavio Bolsonaro Holds Slim 1.3 Point Lead Over Lula in Final Brazil Poll

A final pre-election survey released on Saturday shows Flavio Bolsonaro leading incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva by 1.3 percentage points in Brazil's presidential run-off. The CNT/MDA poll places Bolsonaro at 46.3 percent and Lula at 45 percent. The margin of error is 2.2 points, placing the race within the range of a statistical tie.

The numbers have shifted slightly in the final week of campaigning. A survey from the same firm released one week earlier showed Bolsonaro ahead by a wider margin of 46.8 percent to 45.9 percent. Both candidates spent Saturday holding their final major rallies before the voting booths open on Sunday.

Lula, an 80-year-old leader seeking a fourth non-consecutive term, addressed crowds at Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro. Wearing a red hat, he stood on a campaign truck and waved a Brazilian flag. He pointed to his rival's ties with US President Donald Trump, telling the crowd that voters must choose between a leader who respects the national flag and one who favors the American flag.

Flavio Bolsonaro, a senator and son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, campaigned in the southeastern state of Minas Gerais. His rally featured hundreds of motorcyclists wearing yellow national football jerseys. Ebert Dorigo, one of the attendees, told the AFP news agency that Lula's Workers' Party had created a culture of dependence on government welfare. Dorigo argued that Brazil needs a change in direction, stating that the values of nation and family are central to his support.

The election determines whether Brazil maintains its current left-wing government or joins a regional trend toward the right. Bolsonaro has pledged to cut government spending and build hundreds of thousands of new prison places to tackle crime. His father, who served as president from 2019 to 2022, is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting a coup after the 2022 election loss.

The campaign has featured sharp debates over economic policy and crime, though the final debate on Friday saw a calmer tone between the two men. Gabriela Ribeiro Viana, an event organizer, described the choice as difficult for many voters. She told AFP that while other candidates might have been preferred, voters are forced to pick between the worst option and the lesser evil.