Trump Advisers Draft Plans for Israeli Opposition as Polls Shift

Tensions are rising within the Trump administration as internal polling data suggests Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may lose his seat in the Knesset. US officials told Axios that the president’s closest advisers are actively exploring how to engage with the opposition bloc if it takes power. This shift signals a potential break from the current diplomatic strategy, which has remained tightly aligned with the incumbent government despite recent friction.

The political stakes are high in Washington. One senior adviser described the situation by noting that Netanyahu is the devil the president knows. This sentiment reflects a pragmatic calculation among staff who believe a stable transition of power in Jerusalem is preferable to prolonged uncertainty. The report indicates that many of these same advisers initially opposed the president’s decision to endorse Netanyahu, arguing that the US should have remained neutral in the upcoming election.

Vice President JD Vance has signaled this internal division. Speaking to reporters this week, Vance clarified that he is not personally attacking or endorsing the prime minister. He stated that the president’s endorsement is the one that matters, a comment that leaves room for the rest of the cabinet to operate with some flexibility. This ambiguity allows staff to prepare for a post-Netanyahu scenario without formally reversing the top-level diplomatic stance.

Strains over policy are already visible in the administration’s public positions. US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack recently criticized the Netanyahu government’s military approach in Syria. He described recent Israeli strikes in the Idlib province as an unnecessary escalation that does not advance regional stability. This public rebuke highlights the growing gap between the White House and the Israeli government on tactical military decisions.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his team maintain a closer relationship with the prime minister but harbor their own frustrations. They believe Israel could do more to strengthen the government in Lebanon. Their team has also expressed dissatisfaction with what they view as a failure by Netanyahu’s government to curb settler attacks in the West Bank. These policy disagreements provide a foundation for the proposed shift toward the opposition, which may be seen as more responsive to these concerns.

The internal planning coincides with a weakening of Netanyahu’s polling position. The latest Maariv poll shows the opposition bloc widening its lead to 54 seats, while Netanyahu’s bloc has dropped to 48. This margin is critical for the upcoming vote. The survey also reveals that 60% of respondents prefer a unity government if the election does not produce a clear majority, while 23% favor another election.

In a direct comparison for the prime ministerial role, Yair Lapid leads Netanyahu with 49% support against 41% for the incumbent. Among those who prefer a unity government, 33% want an opposition candidate to lead it, compared with 19% who prefer Netanyahu. The remaining 8% support a unity government regardless of leadership. These numbers suggest that the US team is preparing for a realistic outcome where the current prime minister steps down.