Qatar pushes two-day truce plan as Brent crude sits 60% above pre-war levels

Brent crude oil stands 60% higher today than it did before the war began. That price spike reflects the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the uncertainty facing energy markets across the Gulf region.

Qatar has led intense mediation efforts over the past 72 hours. These talks aim to stave off new attacks by the United States and Israel on Iran. The U.S. and Israel are planning for possible strikes that could occur after Tuesday's midterm elections.

Qatari mediators visited Tehran, while an Iranian delegation traveled to Doha. Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, told Iranian state media that there is still no definitive conclusion to these efforts. However, he mentioned discussions about a two-day plan. This proposal would involve Iran refraining from attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz to allow direct talks between Washington and Tehran to resume.

President Donald Trump addressed the possibility of restarting the war from a Halloween party at Mar-a-Lago. He stated that the United States is not in a hurry to act. Trump claimed that U.S. forces have knocked out almost every piece of military equipment in Iran, including a lot of manufacturing capabilities and nuclear sites. He noted that one or two sites remain, which he said could be handled in 10 minutes.

Aya Batrawy, an international correspondent reporting from Bahrain, noted that senior European diplomats and Arab military generals are unsure of Trump's next move. The lives of tens of millions of people in the Gulf hinge on his decision. The U.S. and Israel launched the war eight months ago, killing Iran's supreme leader, top military commanders, and many ships and missile production sites.

Despite eight months of war and crippling U.S. economic sanctions, the conflict has not toppled Iran's regime. That outcome was the stated goal of Israel. Iran's Revolutionary Guard remains capable of inflicting pain on Gulf Arab countries. These nations are among the world's most important oil and gas producers.

Iran's supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, sent a message to senior armed forces commanders this weekend. He instructed that any threat to the country must be met with an immediate response without geographical limitations. Iranian state media says this means new Israeli or U.S. attacks will inflict even greater damage than previously seen.

Bahrain, a tiny island nation in the Persian Gulf, hosts the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet. On the first day of the war on February 28, Iran hit U.S. military sites across the region. The 5th Fleet's logistics hub and warehouses in Bahrain sustained damage. Radar equipment was hit, and warehouses were charred and blackened. The base held 8,000 military personnel before the war and now has fewer than 100.

Bahrain's foreign minister, Abdullatif Al Zayani, spoke at the Manama Dialogue security forum. He noted that Iran fired many missiles and drones at civilian infrastructure in his country. He also highlighted new threats from Iran's Revolutionary Guard to hit undersea internet cables carrying data through the Strait of Hormuz. Al Zayani described the Strait as a shared artery being used as a tool of pressure.

Anwar Gargash, a senior Emirati diplomat, stated at the summit that the Gulf must deal with the crisis using political tools. He argued that military solutions will only complicate the current scene and will not bring a quick off-ramp to a solution. Saudi Arabia is also struggling to protect its airports and oil facilities from attacks by Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen.