Baghdad Points to Israeli Attacks on Iranian Arms Caches

Iraqi authorities believe Israeli forces were behind recent strikes on two sites where Iranian-backed militias stored shoulder-fired air defense systems of Chinese origin. This assessment was shared with the London-based Arabic newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat on Saturday. The weapons in question are reportedly supplied by Tehran, though the specific model of the system involved was not identified. The report acknowledged that some parts of the claims remain unconfirmed and cited a lack of definitive evidence for the strikes.

One source noted that the armed group responsible for choosing the storage locations considered them extremely difficult to reach or detect. The suspected attacks occurred shortly after the shipments arrived at both sites last week. This timing suggests a targeted operation rather than a random event. The details highlight the ongoing tension between Baghdad and regional powers vying for influence in the country.

The timeline of incidents extends back to the beginning of the month. On October 1, warehouses linked to Iran-backed groups in and around Baghdad were affected by blasts. These reports included the destruction of drones intended for suicide attacks and reconnaissance missions. A security official stated that while the nature of the strikes was not fully determined, the evidence gathered was sufficient to attribute the actions to Israel. This early October event set the stage for the more recent attacks on the air defense systems.

Tensions escalated further with an explosion at a Popular Mobilization Forces base on October 17. The PMF is an umbrella body that includes many Iranian-backed militias and serves as an Iraqi government paramilitary force. The organization described the blast as an accident, and the Iraqi government promised an investigation. However, the newspaper reported that the explosion hit a stockpile of obsolete ammunition at a headquarters in Baghdad's East Canal area, injuring five people. An anonymous official said authorities were still investigating, despite more than a week passing without updates.

This is not the first time Iraq has suspected Israeli involvement in strikes on its soil. Militias have blamed Israel for attacks in 2019 and a specific strike in Albukamal, Syria, near the Iraqi border. In May, media reports indicated that Israel established a secret airstrip in Iraq during its campaign against Iran. Asharq Al-Awsat also mentioned conflicting accounts of Israeli fighter jets flying through Iraqi airspace near the Iranian border with support from midair refuelers. These historical precedents add context to the current suspicions.

Iran has armed Iraqi militias for years, providing missiles and drones capable of threatening Israel. Following the war that began on October 7, 2023, these groups carried out numerous attacks against Israel. Since the United States and Israel began airstrikes in February, Tehran has sought to turn Iraq into a frontline. Iran has launched more than 1,000 strikes on the Kurdistan Region using drones and missiles. Additionally, Iran and allied militias have mounted 600 attacks across Iraq, some targeting US diplomatic sites.

The geopolitical landscape is further complicated by the US withdrawal. American forces left Iraq on September 30, a deadline agreed upon with Baghdad over previous years. The US has since warned Americans against traveling to Baghdad. The newspaper linked earlier reports of China supplying weapons to Iran with the movement of these systems to Iraq, though it described that connection as unconfirmed. China's Foreign Ministry denied such reports on July 28. Separately, an Iran-backed militia attacked Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline with a drone from Iraq's Maysan province, leading to the closure of that crossing.

The strikes are seen as a signal of a new round of conflict. A source in the Shi'ite Coordination Framework said ruling party leaders had predicted that renewed war between Washington and Tehran would begin with the total destruction of the Iraqi factions' capabilities. Most major groups in the PMF, excluding the Badr Organization, have been sanctioned by the US as terrorist organizations. Meanwhile, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a collection of militias with a history of attacking Israel and the US, published a statement claiming Iraqi airspace was being violated.