ANC vote share drops to 32 percent in South African municipal polls

The African National Congress is facing a significant decline in support following early results from South Africa's municipal elections. Data released by the election commission late on Thursday indicated that the ANC had secured approximately 32 percent of the vote as more than 60 percent of ballots were counted. This sharp reduction in vote share weakens the control of the long-dominant party over key urban centers, including Johannesburg.

The Democratic Alliance emerged as the second strongest party with 25 percent of the counted votes. In third place was the uMkhonto weSizwe party, a breakaway opposition group led by former President Jacob Zuma, which received 8.5 percent. This figure for the MK party was lower than what recent opinion polls had suggested.

Turnout for this week's elections was estimated at 54.5 percent, with approximately 15.9 million of the 29.2 million registered voters casting ballots. This represents an increase from the 46 percent turnout recorded during the pandemic-affected local elections in 2021.

The ANC, which has held the position of South Africa's largest political party since leading the country out of apartheid in 1994, has historically performed worse in municipal contests than in national ones. The party has acknowledged its shortcomings in local governance. In 2004, the ANC commanded nearly 70 percent of the national vote. By the 2021 municipal elections, that share had fallen below 50 percent for the first time, settling at 46 percent.

In the 2024 national elections, the ANC managed just over 40 percent of the vote, forcing it to accept a unity government with nine other parties, including the Democratic Alliance. Now led by President Cyril Ramaphosa, the party has faced intense criticism regarding years of municipal mismanagement. Critics point to failing water supplies, persistent power cuts, and crumbling public services as evidence of these governance issues.

The ANC has also grappled with corruption allegations and the erosion of its support base by splinter parties. The results from this week's local ballot are viewed as a critical indicator of voter sentiment ahead of the next general election in 2029. The elections determined control of the country's eight major metropolitan municipalities, along with dozens of district and local councils.

In the eastern port city of Durban, the MK party had been predicted to secure an outright majority. However, projections from the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, a state-funded body, placed its support in that city at 32 percent. Meanwhile, the Democratic Alliance was forecast to retain control of Cape Town, a major tourist destination, with 56 percent of the vote. The party's leader, Geordin Hill-Lewis, already declared victory for his party.

In Johannesburg, the nation's financial capital, the Democratic Alliance was leading with 34 percent of the vote. CSIR projections noted that the party ran a spirited campaign spearheaded by its former leader, Helen Zille, who is 75 years old. With outright majorities far from assured in several major cities, the results could lead to another round of complex coalition negotiations. Parties will likely engage in bargaining to assemble the alliances necessary to govern, with final results expected on Sunday.