South Africa's ANC faces historic low in municipal vote count
Early results show the ruling party at 32 percent, signaling a significant drop in support and likely coalition talks in major cities.
By Isabella Kaur ·
South Africa's African National Congress, or ANC, is positioned for its worst ever performance in municipal elections. With more than two-thirds of the ballots already processed, initial figures indicate that the ruling party secured only 32 percent of the vote. The final tally is expected to be released later in the day, but the current trajectory suggests a substantial decline in voter support for the party that has led the nation since 1994.
The ANC's nearest rival, the Democratic Alliance, or DA, is currently polling at 25 percent according to the data from 71 percent of the counted votes. If these preliminary numbers hold steady, the ANC would experience a drop of approximately 14 percentage points from its 2021 municipal election result. That previous figure was already considered the lowest in the party's history, making the current projection a further historic low.
Political analysts suggest that these results will force coalition negotiations to determine control of key urban centers. The most significant uncertainty surrounds Johannesburg, South Africa's largest city, where no single party appears poised to command a majority. This outcome extends the pattern of decline seen at the national level, where the ANC was required to form a governing coalition following the 2024 general election.
Louw Nel, a senior political analyst at Oxford Economics Africa, noted that the high voter turnout indicates that ANC supporters did not abstain from voting. Instead, he observed that they showed up and cast their ballots for alternative parties. Nel described the projected 32 percent share as the party's worst nightmare coming true, highlighting the severity of the shift in public sentiment.
The erosion of the ANC's dominance has been driven by voter frustration over several long-standing issues. Citizens have punished the party for high rates of crime and unemployment, as well as for corruption scandals and the failure to provide consistent basic services such as water and electricity. These factors have contributed to a sharp decrease in the party's share of the vote over recent decades.
In Cape Town, the DA is on track to win an outright majority, consolidating its control over the city. However, projections for other major metropolitan areas point toward hung councils. This includes Tshwane, the municipality that contains the administrative capital of Pretoria, where the balance of power will likely be determined through post-election negotiations.
The situation in eThekwini, the municipality centered on Durban, remains less clear in the early stages of the count. Former President Jacob Zuma is hoping that his party, which split from the ANC, can seize a majority in this region. The outcome here will be a critical test for the splinter group's ability to compete against the established political forces.
Experts have argued that the most stable path for cities like Johannesburg would be for the ANC to partner with the DA. This arrangement would mirror the coalition structure currently in place at the national government level. However, the two parties hold opposing ideological views on critical matters, particularly regarding racial redress policies, which may complicate any potential agreement.
The municipal elections serve as a crucial barometer for the ANC's future viability. As the party navigates these challenging results, it faces the task of rebuilding trust with a electorate that has increasingly turned to opposition groups. The coming days will reveal whether the ANC can forge effective alliances or if the fragmentation of political power in South Africa's cities will deepen.
