Lula secures fourth term with 51 percent of Brazil's vote

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva captured more than 51 percent of the vote in Sunday's runoff, defeating Flavio Bolsonaro who received 48 percent. Electoral authorities declared Lula the winner once 98.76 percent of ballots were tallied. This victory grants the 80-year-old leftist a record fourth non-consecutive term as Brazil's president.

The margin of victory was razor-thin. Polls in the final days showed the two candidates virtually tied. On October 4, Bolsonaro led the first round with 47.03 percent against Lula's 45.16 percent. That initial gap amounted to 2.2 million votes. No presidential candidate in Brazil has finished second in the first round and then won the runoff in almost four decades.

Lula reversed the deficit by targeting voters who abstained in the first round. Andrei Roman, head of polling firm AtlasIntel, identified a drop in abstention as a key factor in the outcome. In the first round, an estimated 33.4 million Brazilians stayed home. That figure represented about 21 percent of the electorate, the highest abstention rate in a general election since 1998. Lula also pitched late promises to his working-class base, including free public transport on weekends.

Regional dynamics drove the final count. Bolsonaro held an early lead as counting began on Sunday evening. However, Lula pulled ahead as results arrived from the northeast. That region is a longtime stronghold for Lula and the Workers' Party. Bolsonaro's support remains concentrated in the south, southeast, and centre-west.

The voting process faced disruption due to a late decision to extend hours. Voting was scheduled to end at 5pm Brasilia time. Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin ordered stations to remain open until 7pm. The order reached some locations after they had already closed. Zanin later clarified that closed stations would not reopen, creating confusion at the polls.

Both campaigns had requested more time. Lula's team accused local officials of cutting public transport to hinder lower-income voters. Bolsonaro's camp cited heavy rain and flooding. In Minas Gerais, the regional electoral court reported that 349 polling locations lost electricity, though voting machines continued on backup batteries.

Bolsonaro has vowed to annul the vote. He accused Zanin of judicial malfeasance, noting that Lula appointed him to the Supreme Court in 2023. "He changes the rules of the game mid-game," Bolsonaro said. He added that it is impossible to recognize the election results. Brazil's Federal Police are investigating transport disruptions in five states. A court in Salvador ordered the arrest of the city's transport secretary over claims he directed bus service cuts.

The result impacts diplomatic relations in Latin America. Reuters reported that US State Department officials had pushed for sanctions against Brazil to weaken Lula. US President Donald Trump said he was watching the situation but did not state a preference. Lula framed his campaign around defending sovereignty against foreign interference, including Trump's tariffs and comments on the trial of Jair Bolsonaro.

In his victory speech, Lula stated he had to overcome interference from the outside. "The election was a defeat for denialism," he said. "It was a defeat for lies."