Knesset election: Palestinian voters hold balance of power as both camps fall short

Voters in Kfar Qasim are gathering to decide the outcome of next week’s general election, where the turnout of Palestinian citizens, who comprise roughly 20% of the population, is expected to be decisive. Current polling indicates that Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right coalition will lose its majority in the 120-seat Knesset. The Jewish Israeli opposition bloc is also projected to fall short of the 61 seats required to govern. Palestinian parties are forecast to win between 12 and 15 seats, divided between the Islamist Ra'am party and the Joint List alliance, which includes Ta'al.

Ahmad Tibi, leader of Ta'al and a Knesset member for more than two decades, stated that high turnout is a key tool to defeat the current government. He said, “We are determined to do everything in order to bring this government down. And high turnout among the Arab community is one important tool in achieving this goal.” Most Jewish opposition parties have ruled out coalition talks with Arab politicians, while Netanyahu’s camp has used slogans such as “It's [either] the right or Palestine” and “Bibi or Tibi” to make such alliances appear toxic.

Historical precedents suggest these political barriers may dissolve after the vote. In 2021, Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas joined a coalition with Naftali Bennett, who is now in the opposition bloc. Netanyahu has also previously opened coalition talks with Abbas. Mohammed, a voter who manages mixed Jewish and Arab staff at a technology firm, expects the opposition to prioritize arithmetic over ideology once results are in. He noted, “At the end of the day, everything is mathematics, right? One plus one is two.”

Forming a coalition presents challenges for Palestinian politicians as well. Most opposition parties do not call for a two-state solution and support the settlement movement in the West Bank. Tibi described his choice as being “between bad and worse,” contrasting the current government’s leadership of Netanyahu, Bezalel Smotrich, and Itamar Ben-Gvir with the opposition alternative. Sami Abu Shehadeh, leader of the Balad party, identified fear as the primary motivation for voters. He said voters fear that “these criminals” will return to power.

The vote comes amid ongoing tensions in Gaza and the West Bank, as well as rising discrimination inside Israel. Last month, the supreme court effectively barred Abu Shehadeh from the race over an article regarding the October 7 attacks, a move criticized for inconsistent application of free speech standards. In contrast, a motion to disqualify security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir over racist language was not upheld. Some Palestinians, including Haaretz journalist Nagham Zbeedat, are abstaining to avoid legitimizing a system that treats their rights as favors.

Amjed Iraqi of the International Crisis Group stated that a returning far-right coalition would have a renewed mandate to accelerate policies of annexation and ethnic cleansing. He characterized the election as a choice focused on mitigation between a right-wing and a far-right government. The election is scheduled for two days before Kfar Qasim marks the 1956 massacre, in which border police killed 49 residents who broke an unknown curfew. Iraqi observed that many people feel powerless due to the lack of clarity about what follows the vote.