EU documents show Moldova outpacing Ukraine on path to membership

European Union documents indicate that Moldova has surpassed Ukraine in the pace of its European integration process. An analysis of the accession roadmaps prepared by Brussels for candidate countries shows a widening gap between the two neighboring states regarding the closure of negotiating chapters.

The European Pravda, a Ukrainian media outlet, examined the annual enlargement package released by the European Commission on 4 November. The analysis notes that while the introductory sections of the roadmaps for Kyiv and Chisinau are nearly identical, the specific timelines diverge sharply. The report concludes that the details within the documents confirm the EU has recognized Moldova's lead over Ukraine.

Internally, the European Commission maintains a ranking of the four countries leading the integration race. Under this system, Ukraine currently occupies the fourth position, trailing behind Moldova. The Commission describes Moldova as well advanced in meeting the interim criteria required of candidate nations. Sources indicate that the Commission has already drafted a positive statement on the Interim Benchmark Assessment Report for Moldova and expects to send it to member states for approval soon.

The difference in momentum is most visible in the projected timelines for closing negotiation chapters. For Ukraine, the roadmap suggests that the process of closing chapters will not begin until the end of the first quarter of 2027. The analysis characterizes this timeline as ambitious, considering the current slow pace of Kyiv's implementation of the benchmark report.

In contrast, the roadmap for Moldova outlines a much faster schedule. The plan envisions the closure of nine chapters in the first half of 2027. An additional 16 chapters are targeted for closure by the end of the year, resulting in a total of 25 chapters closed within twelve months. This aggressive timeline stands in sharp relief to the cautious schedule allocated to Ukraine.

The roadmaps do not include predictions for when any of the frontrunners will conclude accession negotiations. This omission suggests that Brussels hopes Ukraine will accelerate its reform efforts. The European Commission placed Ukraine among the four countries that have made the greatest progress in its annual assessment of 10 candidate countries.

Despite the improved assessment of Ukraine's progress, particularly regarding the fight against corruption, the Commission's report noted a distinct nuance. It stated that the gains in the anti-corruption sphere were achieved not thanks to the actions of the Ukrainian authorities, but despite them.

The European Commission unveiled the annual enlargement package on 4 November, providing a detailed look at the standing of all candidate states. The documents serve as the primary guide for the next phase of negotiations for both Kyiv and Chisinau.