Eisenkot Receives Presidential Mandate but Faces Coalition Hurdles

The political landscape in Israel shifted dramatically on Thursday, favoring Yashar leader Gadi Eisenkot over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Before the formal consultations began, it was evident that President Isaac Herzog would task Eisenkot with forming a new government. The former general now holds a mandate based on recommendations from 67 members of the Knesset, giving him significant momentum. However, the number of lawmakers willing to work together is still well below the majority needed, leaving the country on a path toward potential stalemate.

The turning point for Eisenkot appeared in the mid-afternoon when the Joint List announced it would support his nomination. This decision came as a surprise, as the party had previously signaled it might abstain. This move solidified Eisenkot’s lead, although the outcome was largely determined earlier in the day. United Torah Judaism, the election’s only independent bloc, refused to recommend Netanyahu and hinted it might switch sides for the right price.

Prior to these developments, analysts predicted a closer race, with Netanyahu expected to secure 53 recommendations against Eisenkot’s 56. Such a narrow margin would have psychologically framed the situation as a deadlock, potentially making the president hesitant to nominate Eisenkot without urging a unity deal. Instead, the actions of United Torah Judaism and the Joint List resulted in a decisive 67 to 46 advantage for Eisenkot. This outcome has emboldened his allies, who view it as a mandate to replace the current government rather than share power with Likud.

Yashar MK Shaul Meridor emphasized this stance during his meeting with President Herzog. When the president raised the idea of a unity government, Meridor responded that the public had told the October 7 government to go home. Despite the strong recommendation numbers, only 48 MKs are unequivocally prepared to ally with Eisenkot without conditions. This figure is five fewer than the bloc supporting Netanyahu, which includes United Torah Judaism, a party that may be negotiating from a position of strength rather than planning to defect.

Neither the Joint List nor United Torah Judaism has committed to supporting an Eisenkot-led cabinet, meaning the 67 to 46 tally remains more theoretical than practical. The real challenge for Eisenkot begins now, with only weeks remaining before his mandate expires. He must expand his reliable support base without losing existing allies, a difficult task given the ideological differences within his camp.

A major obstacle is the reluctance of right-wing parties to rely on Arab party support. Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Liberman has ruled out a coalition dependent on the Joint List and Ra’am. Additionally, United Torah Judaism is demanding concessions on Haredi military draft deferrals, a position that conflicts with nearly all other parties in the Eisenkot camp, except for Ra’am. Such a deal could be politically risky for all parties involved.

If Eisenkot chooses to build a government reliant on Arab support, he faces the prospect of a prolonged delegitimization campaign by Likud and its allies. The Prime Minister has already cast doubt on the Arab vote since late October, a strategy that could prove more potent than claims of fraud. By appealing to emotional objections among Jewish Zionist voters, Netanyahu may find an effective way to stymie the new government’s progress.

Observers are questioning whether Eisenkot possesses the coalition-building skills to overcome these hurdles. Unlike Netanyahu, who is known for his ability to navigate complex political deals, Eisenkot has yet to demonstrate similar expertise. Nevertheless, thanks to the strategic moves by United Torah Judaism and the Joint List, it is Eisenkot who now holds the cards in the race to form the next Israeli government.