Trump faces obstacles to renewed North Korea talks after midterm setback
Analysts say Trump could pursue fresh diplomacy with Kim Jong Un, but North Korea has few incentives to engage and US allies fear concessions over its nuclear arsenal.
By Hassan Okoye ·
President Donald Trump's setback in the US midterm elections could increase his interest in reviving negotiations with North Korea, according to analysts and officials in Asia. But securing a meeting with leader Kim Jong Un could require concessions that would strain Washington's relationships with South Korea and Japan.
With two years remaining in his term, Trump is expected to look abroad for achievements that could shape his legacy. Efforts to end the wars in Ukraine and Iran have yet to deliver breakthroughs. Ban Kil-joo, an international relations professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy in Seoul, said domestic constraints could push Trump toward foreign policy successes, with North Korea potentially featuring in efforts to help a successor win in 2028.
The White House rejected the suggestion that political considerations drive Trump's diplomacy. In emailed remarks to Reuters, spokeswoman Anna Kelly said he had strengthened America's international position and relationships with world leaders, and would act in the interests of Americans and national security. Trump met Kim three times during his first presidency, following exchanges that raised concerns about military conflict. Their 2019 summit failed to produce an agreement on nuclear weapons and sanctions relief.
North Korea's position has strengthened since those negotiations. Its nuclear and missile forces have grown, and relations with Russia and China are at their strongest in years, reducing Kim's incentive to engage. Despite Trump's positive descriptions of their personal relationship, US and South Korean officials believe a meeting this year is becoming less likely. Pyongyang has not responded to Washington ahead of a regional summit in China this month that could have provided an opportunity.
Kim's sister, Kim Yo Jong, has said dialogue remains a route toward peace, while maintaining that negotiations are unnecessary now. She also criticized US policy and denied American accusations that North Korea stole more than $6 billion in virtual assets from Binance last week. Kim Jong Un has previously indicated willingness to talk if Washington abandons its demand for North Korea to relinquish nuclear weapons, a concession opposed by Seoul and Tokyo.
Leif-Eric Easley, an international studies professor at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, warned that sidelining denuclearization would weaken deterrence and cause disagreements among the three allies. A senior Japanese official, speaking anonymously, said officials in Japan and South Korea fear being excluded if Trump negotiates directly with Kim with tacit support from Beijing and Moscow.
Trump has described North Korea as a nuclear power, a designation regional allies and Western countries have declined to recognize. Kazuhiro Maeshima, a professor at Sophia University in Japan, said US acceptance of that status could dramatically alter Asian security. North Korea's expanded capabilities include hypersonic glide vehicles, modern warships and submarines, and improved drones.
Yonsei University professor Moon Chung-in said concessions could encounter resistance from a Democratic-controlled Congress, while Trump's remaining time in office could further discourage Kim from negotiating. Former US Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun, who headed North Korea negotiations during Trump's first term, likewise said Pyongyang currently sees little potential benefit from a meeting and some possible disadvantages.
