ANC faces historic vote share drop

African National Congress support in South African local government may fall to 30%, according to the marketing firm Ipsos. This prediction marks a steep decline from the 45.59% the party secured in 2021. The 2016 figures show an even higher baseline of 53.91%. These results will determine which parties control the 213 municipalities in the country.

Voters cast ballots on Wednesday for municipal councils. The timing coincides with widespread dissatisfaction over basic services. Many residents in large cities debated whether to vote or abstain. In Tembisa, a township near Johannesburg, Vatiswa Zoya chose to stay home. She questioned the value of voting while still facing hunger. Lindokuhle Mbandazayo, a 22-year-old, decided to vote. She cited power outages and street sewage as her main reasons. She noted that voters expect councilors to fix these specific problems.

Water infrastructure has become the central campaign issue. Ferrial Adam, executive director of the NGO WaterCAN, calls the situation a definite water crisis. She states that half of the country's drinking water systems are unfit for consumption. Nearly 70% of wastewater treatment plants are in a critical state. A recent treatment failure in Tshwane left more than 400 residents sick. This incident illustrates the urgency of the issue for local officials.

Political analyst Sanusha Naidu observes that candidates often lack detailed budget plans. She describes campaign promises as transactional rather than strategic. Naidu argues that many candidates have not analyzed the financial realities of improving water access. This gap between rhetoric and planning fuels voter frustration. The ruling party has struggled to connect with Millennial and Gen Z voters. These groups now make up a large share of the electorate. Mbandazayo, voting for the second time, is considering a different party. She says the incumbent has not delivered results despite long-term support.

Migration has also entered the debate. Several parties use it as a key campaign issue. Aldu Cornelissen of Murmur Intelligence believes Action SA will benefit most from anti-immigration sentiment. He estimates this issue could swing 6% to 8% of the vote. The competition is fierce. In Johannesburg alone, 136,760 candidates are contesting across 75 parties. Small margins will decide many local outcomes.

Misinformation plays a role in the campaign. The Independent Electoral Commission has investigated over 700 complaints of disinformation. False claims included the idea that the ANC plans to mobilize asylum seekers to vote. William Bird of Moxii Africa notes that disinformation often targets hot-button issues. He emphasizes that while social media encourages conflict, there is no evidence the election is rigged. Turnout remains a critical variable. Participation dropped from 57.95% in 2016 to 45.87% in 2021. The proportional representation system means half of council seats depend on the party vote. Voter turnout will determine the final makeup of each municipality.

The 2016 election saw the ANC control 161 of 213 councils. By 2021, that number fell to 122. A further drop is expected this year. Coalition-run local governments may become more common. The results will show if the ANC can retain a foothold in major urban centers. The outcome depends on how many voters show up to the polls.