Latino voters turn against Republicans as deportations fuel election backlash

Latino voters moved sharply toward Democrats in Tuesday’s elections, helping the party win control of the House and Senate and governorships in Texas, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. For voters and organizers in Hispanic communities, anger over immigration raids and deportations was a central reason for rejecting Republicans two years after Donald Trump expanded his support among Latino Americans.

Pew Research found that Trump received 48% of the Latino vote in 2024, an increase of 12 percentage points from 2020. Republican support among Hispanic voters fell to 30% in Tuesday’s election. A New York Times analysis calculated a nationwide shift toward Democrats of 28 points compared with 2024, larger than the change recorded for any other demographic voting group.

Benny Melendez, who owns a small housebuilding business in Weslaco, Texas, was among those who switched sides. He supported Trump in 2024 because of his promises on border security and the economy, expecting immigration enforcement to target people with criminal records. After ICE deported two cousins and as many as 15 of his workers to Mexico, he voted Democratic. “Trump went against us,” Melendez said.

Texas elected Democrat Gina Hinojosa as its first Latino governor. Hinojosa comes from the Rio Grande Valley and her mother immigrated from Mexico. In California, Democrat Xavier Becerra, whose parents were immigrants from Mexico, will become the state’s first elected Latino governor. Both victories came amid anger over the administration’s treatment of immigrant communities.

Democrats also won all four congressional districts along the Texas border with Mexico, including three that Republicans had redrawn to strengthen their position in the House. Democratic incumbents Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez retained their seats. In the 15th district, where 81% of residents are Hispanic, Tejano musician Bobby Pulido defeated Republican incumbent Monica De La Cruz. With 95% of ballots counted, his lead stood at 24 percentage points.

Pulido’s campaign manager, Abel Prado, linked the result partly to the administration’s deportation campaign. Nearly 40% of the 48,000 people in the campaign’s voter database belonged to mixed-status families, he said. For eligible voters whose parents could not vote, a mother’s or father’s deportation could become a decisive motivation to participate.

The movement toward Democrats extended across distinct Hispanic communities in Florida, including Cuban and Venezuelan voters in Miami-Dade and Puerto Rican communities around Orlando. Republican representative Maria Elvira Salazar faced a close contest against Democratic candidate Eliott Rodriguez, a fellow Cuban American newscaster. Trump had carried Miami-Dade by 15 points in 2024.

Salazar had warned Trump in a September campaign advertisement that mass deportations had “gone too far” and that supporters felt betrayed. Trump accused her of disloyalty and insisted his Latino backing remained steady. Tuesday’s results challenged that assessment, while also underscoring the political diversity of the country’s 30 million registered Latino voters.

Stephanie Valencia, co-founder of Equis Research, cautioned Democrats against assuming the gains would last. She said voters wanted attention to the economy, inflation, immigration and wars abroad. “Democrats are entering a probationary period with voters, they should not make the mistake of thinking that this swing is permanent,” she said.